What I Learn Over Winter Vaction: the Gaza Invasion Lessons

The Israeli military attacks on Gaza are stretching into their second week and I think it is time to step back from the horror of daily rocket attacks and helicopter gunships and take a look at what can and should be learned from this conflict. So the question on the table is what did I learn on my winter break; the Gaza invasion lesson. Over the next few days I will share some observations I have made out of the current conflict in Israel.

Lesson 1: Demos=Hamas

One of the major planks in the neoconservative foreign policy platform adopted by the Bush administration was the global promotion of democratic regimes and more specifically, pushing hard for the adoption of democracy in the Middle East. An unintended consequence of rule by the people is that the people of a given country may not choose the best strategic choice for the promotion of U.S. interests in the region in question. Case in Point was the landslide electoral win of Hamas members in 2006 parliamentary elections. This was disaster for U.S. policy in the Middle East and for the peace process; a current terrorist network that wants to destroy Israel won. Let me point out right now what I am not saying; I am not saying that Hamas is a bunch of really good guys or that promoting democracy is a bad thing. What I am saying is that Hamas, As bad as they are, were democratically elected as the rulers of the Palestinian authority. In regard to democracy promotion I believe it is a good idea but it can and will weakening the short tem goals of the United States while in the long run working to the benefit of U.S. Policy goals. The bottom Line is that we need to be willing to take one in the teeth in the short term in the middle east as the electorates there, which have been suppressed for years, either internally like in Syria or Jordan, or externally as in case of the Palestinians, figure out how to do democracy. In light of this kind of brutal oppression and suppression it is only natural that the more radical, reactionary political parties will appear the most appealing. As a result they will win sizable portions of the vote if nor winning elections out right. They will either learn to rule effectively, be voted out of office in subsequent elections or seize power through a coup. We can only hope for the first two options and use our political and military influence in the region to seek these ends. If we allow these countries and their electorates to figure out democracy and how to vote in their best interest, with some unfortunate twists in the short term, the U.S. should come out a head in the more distant future. In light of this I would like to close with a note of caution; to believe that simply because two countries are democratic that they will get along is a very naive position to hold indeed. States balance states, not due to the type of governmental system they employ or in light of the perceived threat another nation poses but because it is the nature of states to compete for influence with other states. The balance of power is alive and well and very real. Democracy or not the Middle East and Arab-Israeli relations will be messy for years to come.